GSI, Global Solidarity International warns that the impact of climate change will be faster and stronger than expected. Quote “prevent the temperature from rising two degrees Celsius more is not enough,” concluded Dr. James Hansen, climate change expert and former NASA scientist. As explained in their study published in the journal European Geoscience Union, 1 degree over global warming could be catastrophic for humanity, because in just 50 years, the sea level will rise 3-8 meters. GSI has proposed a solution to be discussed during the Paris Summit COP 21.
This report (Dr. Hansen), once collated and confirmed by the scientific community, changes the picture of the situation on climate change and puts us in planetary emergency since we are close to reach 1 over global average temperature on current levels. Hence the need for extreme measures such as emergency and intensive Solidarity Fund 2% of world GDP and Eco Government Planetarium. We face a global flood box, where 1 2030 average temperature over the first 30 centimeters and ocean elevation reached. To avoid this you need to go to zero net emissions by 2025, replacing the entire energy matrix. Here we will need to fund capital-intensive and a political and economic coordination, in ecological terms, on all countries globally.
James Hansen suggests a potential for rapid climate change during this century, including several meters sea level rise if climate change is not reduced.
Studying the climate of the Earth responded to past natural changes, Hansen investigated one of the key issues arising from climate change caused by man: What is the dangerous level of climate change? Some international leaders have suggested a goal of limiting to two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times to avoid catastrophic change. But Hansen said at a news conference at a meeting at the American Geophysical Unidon in San Francisco, a warming of two degrees could lead to drastic, such as a significant loss of ice in Greenland and Antarctica changes.
Based on the analytical work temperature Hansen GISS, the average global surface temperature of the Earth has risen 1 ° C since 1880 and now is warming at a rate of more than 0.1 ° C per decade. This warming is largely driven by the increase in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, emitted by burning fossil fuels in power plants, cars and industry. At the current rate of burning fossil fuels, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will have doubled compared to pre-industrial levels by mid-century. Doubling the level of carbon dioxide would cause eventual heating of various degrees, according to Hansen.
In recent research, Hansen and co-author Makiko Sato, also from GISS compared the climate of today, the Holocene, with a similar period of interglacial periods – periods when the polar ice caps exist but the world was dominated by glaciers.
Studying corals drilled ice sheets and deep ocean sediments, Hansen found that global mean temperatures during the Eemian, which began 130,000 years ago and lasted about 15,000 years, were less degree warmer than today.
If temperatures to rise 2 ° C over pre-industrial times, the average global temperature could far exceed that of the Eemian, when sea level was four to 8 meters higher than today, Hansen said.
“The paleoclimate record reveals a more sensitive than we thought, even from a few years ago climate. Limiting warming by two degrees caused man is not enough, “Hanen said:” It would be a recipe for disaster. ”
Hansen focused much of the work as the polar regions and in particular the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland react to a warmer world.
Two degrees Celsius of warming would make a planet Earth much warmer than during the Eemian, and bring it closer to the conditions of the Pliocene, when the sea level was about 25 meters higher than today, Hansen said. Using the climate history of Earth learn more about the level of sensitivity that governs the response to warming the planet today. Hansen said the paleoclimate record suggests that every degree Celsius global temperature rises could eventually assume rising 20 meters from sea level. However, the sea level increases due to loss of the ice would be expected to occur for centuries and remain large uncertainties in predicting how ice loss will arise.
Hansen notes that the disintegration of the ice will not be a linear process. This nonlinear deterioration that has already been seen in vulnerable places such as Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica, where the rate of ice loss has continued accelerating during the past decade. Data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Satellite (GRACE) is already consistent with the rate of mass loss of sea ice in Greenland and West Antarctica that doubles every ten years. GRACE is too short to confirm this with great certainty, however, the trend in the past few years does not rule, according to Hansen. This continued rate of ice loss could cause several meters of sea level rise by 2100.
Sediment cores from the ocean and ice in the polar regions indicate that temperatures at the poles during previous epochs – when sea level was several dozen meters taller is not too far from the Earth temperatures could reach this century if everything continues on the current path.
“We have a substantial cushion between today’s climate and dangerous warming,” Hansen says, “The Earth is about to experience a strong amplified feedback in response to further moderate global warming.”
Detailed considerations of a new warming target and how to get there than the object of this research, Hansen said. But this research is consistent with previous findings of Hansen in carbon dioxide need back from 400 parts per million in the atmosphere today to 350 million pairs to stabilize the long-term climate. As leaders continue to discuss a framework for reducing emissions, global carbon dioxide emissions have remained stable or have increased in recent years.
Hansen and others indicate that while the paleoclimate evidence paints a clear picture of how was the previous Earth’s climate, but using it to predict precisely how the climate might change a lot shorter time scales in response to human-induced, shows signs response, even in the chaos of “slow feedbacks” such as changes in ice sheets.
The human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere also presents climatologists something they had never seen in 65 million years of record levels of carbon dioxide. A drastic rate increase which makes it difficult to predict how the Earth will respond quickly. In periods when carbon dioxide has increased due to natural causes, the rate of increase averaged 0.0001 parts per million per year – in other words, 100 parts per million every million years. The burning of fossil fuels is now causing the concentrations of carbon dioxide increase in two parts per million per year.
A small increase in the heating produces a small polar ice melting, but this causes changes in ocean currents which tend to melt more ice: the more ice melts faster other begins to melt due to the heat remains trapped in the water underneath.
Fresh water is less dense than salt and the first product of the fusion of the ice, as this study will accumulate around Greenland and Antarctica. This layer will act like a blanket around Antarctica, floating above the rest of the salt water and preventing the accumulated heat is radiated into the atmosphere. The result is a rapid melting of the ice.
Above this layer of water disrupt the ocean currents that carry heat from the tropics to the poles, so the tropics heat up even faster, while at high latitudes the water surface would cool. This temperature difference Superstorms generate and fury of a size never seen by modern humans. However, no evidence, found in the Bahamas, other storms that occurred 120,000 years ago. Waste left by the waves of storms were deposited at 40 meters above the current sea level, including rocks of thousands of tonnes (main picture).
According to the study authors, an increase of 2 degrees will lead to a dangerous situation in the coastal areas and islands formed by countries will face disastrous consequences for the rise in at least 5 meters above the sea and the scourge of Superstorms. This means, for example, the disappearance of entire countries map made up of small islands in the Pacific.
“Humans have exceeded the slow changes that occur in natural geologic time scales,” says Hansen
Undoubtedly reduce carbon emissions is good for the health of the global environment, but to achieve zero net emissions and proceed to decontaminate it is much better.
The problem today with the peaks of climate change is that politicians are psyched with the equation of not exceeding 2 degrees Celsius average global temperature over. This threshold popularized the scientist James Hansen, the same as we now warns that this is not enough and that it is sufficient that the temperature 1 more rise to the oceans to amount between 3-8 meters in less than 50 years, as they did Eeminiano in the period, about 100,000 years ago.
React and apply new information equivalent to an investment of hundreds of billions of dollars per year. If this does not all coastal cities will be flooded irreversibly ago. And the economic damage will amount to an impact of $ 100 billion in losses and the effect of cost 10 billion per year because of global warming by 2050 (10% of world GDP).
From GSI, Global Solidarity, Solidarity proposed the Green Fund 2% of world GDP to solve the problem of global warming by the hunger and extreme poverty. It is an effort that must be made between all countries and ensure the future of peace for everyone.
Taking a case: Argentina, the prediction of Dr. Hansen puts us in front of the stage for 2030 with more than 1 global average temperature rise half a meter ocean. Under this condition the properties on the coast will not be worth anything. Since 2050 the water will rise 8 meters and must be evacuated about 10 million Argentines. At the same time the climate for the region will become more hostile and pampas region tend to become semi-desert, so that billions of dollars will be lost in respect of crops. Adding this to the lost property in the flooded towns across the coastline, minimal impact will then be around 500 billion dollars. Meanwhile, in the world they will be affected at least 600 million people.
WHY THE 2% of global GDP?
Our actions in the coming decades inmediatamentente may involve the risk of disruption of economic and social activity for the rest of this century and the next, on a similar scale to that of the great wars and the Great Depression. This is the conclusion of the report by economist Sir Nicholas Stern for the UK government and was published on October 30, 2006.
Its main conclusions state that an investment equivalent to 1% of global GDP is required to mitigate the effects of climate change and that failure to do this investment the world would be exposed to a recession that could reach 20% of global GDP. The report also suggests the imposition of environmental taxes to minimize the socio-economic imbalances.
The United Nations Program for Environment (UNEP) proposed to allocate 2% of global annual GDP applied: 0.5% to sectors of natural capital (forests, agriculture, freshwater fishing); 1% by improving energy efficiency and using renewable energy (mainly applied to the construction, industry and transport), and the remaining percentage waste and public transport.
Armed with this budget may be planted 30 billion new trees per year and proceeding to then bury the logs, trapping the CO2 and returning the greenhouse gas underground and proceeding to an intelligent control of global climate, by regulating dioxide free carbon in the atmosphere. By greening the world’s forests. The task is done by the multinational AEON of Japan with expertise in forest restoration, not to repeat the mistakes made with green credits. (We cut per year at 15 billion trees).
Also, they will have the games to take a historic decision, change the entire fleet and move to fuel engines with hydrogen and stop polluting the environment. There will be sufficient funding for this.
It may fight drug trafficking and corruption with the coordination of a global coalition government with powers assigned to eradicate the effect of achieving large common ailments, and elected and controlled through a system of Digital Direct Democracy. Will incumbencies limited to global issues, such as nature reserves will no longer belong to national jurisdictions and will go to the planetary administration, as the case of Amazonia.
Eco Government Planetarium: United Nations implemented through the system of Digital Direct Democracy a referendum for the creation of a Planetary coalition government, for whose approval will have the vote of 50% plus one vote of all citizens enabled the world.
Such centralized government will incumbencies on global issues such as climate change, environmental disasters, vital and strategic natural resources, disease, hunger, extreme poverty, wars, human trafficking, the defense of universal human rights , combating drug trafficking and corruption.
It will have a budget equivalent to 2% of global GDP annually. The planetary president will mandate for four years and may be reelected for a second term. Parliament shall consist of all citizens of the globe through Direct Digital Democracy, advised by a Science Council, composed of scientists.
The planetary government as priority mission will end hunger, extreme poverty, overpopulation and limit stop global warming in the short term.
With 2% of global GDP, annually, it will be able to:
1. Abolish the extreme poverty in all the earth, forever
2. No more no child dies of hunger and preventable diseases.
3. flourish forest, 30 billion trees will be planted per year.
44. technology to stop polluting is renewed.
5. The fleet will be replaced by other hydrogen.
6. alternative energy be developed in replacement of oil and coal.
7. oceans decontaminated.
8. Amazonia is saved.
9. overpopulation is limited.
10. There will be games for environmental disasters.
11. combat terrorism.
12. It will combat international drug trafficking.
13. Organized crime and corruption are desarticulará.
14. ecosystems will be preserved.
Global warming will cause losses of US $ 100 billion S
GSI-“Start fast, comprehensive and efficient to give fundamental solution to the problem of climate change solutions and predation of the environment in general, is a matter of absolute survival. It is not a moral or ethical cause. If you do not perform the necessary actions in due time, enough to renew the harmony between humanity and nature, quantifiable results in economic losses will occur in no less than 100 billion dollars over the next hundred years and millions of people die intelligence because of the extent of drought, lack of food and drinking water, with flooding of coastal areas, “said Roberto Gomes owner of Global Solidarity International promoted by the Planetary Government Eco Project.
“The Living Planet Index-which measures more than 10,000 critical populations of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish-has fallen by 52% between 1970 and 2010. Latin America has lost 83% of the populations of fish, birds, mammals , amphibians and reptiles in the last 40 years. At the same time the demand for resources we put on natural sources already exceeds 50%, than the planet can renew and projections about the future, due to the growth of overpopulation and increasing the quality of life, mark a worsening picture. By 2030 the pressure on nature will be 100% above the planet’s capacity by 2050 and 200%. Clearly, we are running our world stocks to extract the basic elements of our livelihood, “he said.
He further stated that “while demand grows geometrically, desertification, ocean pollution and the loss of vital water resources expands. All this tells us that we are reaching the “Earth Hour”, where food will be scarce and pandemics will return. ”
“Five of the six warmest years – said since 1971, ie in 44 years, there have been in this century. At the same time, it stressed the difference between the 2015 and 2006, which is the second warmest, is 0.89 degrees centigrade; and 2010 was the third warmest least 0.1 ° C warmer than 2006. The next, 1994, was less than 0.18 ° C warmer than the previous. We have gone through the solar minimum and last for a period of volcanic eruptions emit sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, which is a cooling agent. This explains the break occurred in previous years in the growth curve of global warming. Now again we are seeing the real effects. ”
About global CO2 emissions, he said that “the current average emissions in the atmosphere hovers around 400 ppm, or 0.040%, with some day-night variations, seasonal by human hand and localized pollution peaks. The increase has been 0.5 ppm / year in 1960 to 2 ppm / year in 2000, with a minimum of 0.43 in 1992 and a maximum of 3 ppm in 1998. At this rate by 2030 we will have reached 440 fateful threshold ppm or 450 ppm, with the consequence of an increase in global temperature of 2 ° Celsius and probably 5th at the poles. Anthropogenic emissions increase 1.7% per year. In 1990 they were issued 20,878 Gt / year of CO2. By 2015 it is estimated that 40,000 will issue Gt / year. In 25 years we have doubled the level of contamination. This level of CO2 in the air there was from 2.1 million years ago. And according to the International Energy Agency, CO2 emissions will increase by 130% by 2050 “.
As for the claims of the “deniers”, he said that “Laboratory tests show carbon dioxide absorbs longwave radiation. Satellite measurements confirmed that there are fewer long wave radiation that escapes into space in the wavelengths where the carbon dioxide absorbed. The result of this imbalance is the accumulation of heat over the past 40 years. The Greenhouse makes the atmosphere return back to Earth 333 W / m².Globalmente the surface of the Earth absorbs solar energy amounting to 161 w / m and the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere receives 333 w / m, totaling 494 w / m, and the surface of the Earth emits (or in other words lost) a total of 493 w / m (which are broken down into 17 w / m sensible heat, 80 w / m latent heat of evaporation water and 396 w / m infrared energy), a net heat input of 0.9 W / m, which at the current time is causing global warming ”
He added that “the so-called Keeling curve shows the continued growth of CO2 in the atmosphere since 1958. It collects measurements Keeling on Mauna Loa volcano observatory. These measurements were the first significant evidence of the rapid increase of CO2 in the atmosphere and attracted worldwide attention on the impact of emissions of greenhouse gases. The greenhouse effect is essential for life on the planet: without CO2 and water vapor (without the greenhouse effect) the average temperature of the Earth would be about 33 ° C less on the order of 18 ° C below zero, which would make it impossible Total vida.Del CO2 emitted only 45% remains in the atmosphere, about 30% is absorbed by the oceans and the remaining 25% goes to the terrestrial biosphere. Therefore not only the atmosphere is increasing CO2 concentration, is also happening in the oceans and biosphere “.
He said that “in the last century the global average temperature has risen by about 1 ° C, and since early 1975 increased by approximately 0.15 ° C. According to the IPCC end of the century the temperature will increase by 2-3 ° C. It is a sudden temperature jump, as occurred during the last 10,000 years and will not allow 30% of species to adapt and therefore survive. ”
“The oceans absorb together- said third of human emissions of CO2. Since the industrial era have been burdened with a total of 120 × 109 tons of the gas emitted by burning fossil fuels. This increase of CO2 in the oceans causes a decrease of pH of water making it more acidic and reducing the concentration of carbonates. This affects marine life, particularly crustaceans and molluscs that use calcium carbonate for the manufacture of their exoskeletons. Even plankton may be indirectly impacted. ”
On the domino effect he said “global warming reduces the ocean circulation and surface water layers become saturated with CO2 and may not already hold. As the hot water in direct proportion decreases the CO2 retention ratio per liter of seawater. This results in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2 will experience a jump and a sudden rise in temperature will occur around the globe. But the arrest of ocean currents is considered highly unlikely by the 2007 IPCC report, which says nothing about the gradual warming of the water. ”
Deposits of methane gas hydrates, when released, can dramatically change the overall average tgemperatura in through 6th and 12th C at the poles. Gomes says that “in the case of methane, its cumulative greenhouse effect is 72 to 20 years: a mass equal in the atmosphere, methane trap 72 times more heat than CO2 over the next 20 years, 25 in the next 100 and 7.6 years in the next 500 years. ”
The submarine methane feedback is starting “flight seafloor methane is much more widespread in the US Atlantic margin than previously thought. It is associated with a phenomenon of rising temperatures that until now had been identified only in Arctic waters, according to a study by researchers at Mississippi State University and the US Geological Survey. Methane plumes identified in the marine area between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and Georges Bank, Massachusetts, are emanating from at least 570 points of cold emanation of the seabed in the outer continental shelf and continental slope. These cold seeps are areas where gases and liquids seep into the water overlying sediments “.
The IPCC projects an increase of 2 ° C and a rise in sea levels of one meter by the end of the century, but the recent report by former NASA scientist, Dr. James Hansen says that with only 1 ° C over the waters will rise up 8 meters, at the latest within 50 years. He justifies this with what happened in the Eemian, 100,000 years ago.
In a more recent study, published in the journal Nature, led by Catherine Ritz of the University of Grenoble in France and Edwards Tamsin Open University in the UK: the most likely outcome, they say, is that global waters rise 10 cm 2100. The prospect of an increase of 30 cm or more, suggested by previous studies, has only one chance in 20. The study focused only on the melting of Antarctica.
Who to believe, to Dr. Hansen team or Ritz-Edwards? Not to be naive, we know that the issue involved oil interests. Also, the statement of the 10 cms, contradicts the last report pointing Climate Central oceanic rise several meters from an increase of 2 ° C.
Gomes concluded that “to overcome this new picture of the situation, which puts us in” planetary emergency “they lack capital intensive, such as mobilized during World War II. The message is that, for free, it will not solve environmental problems. In that sense from GSI we propose the Green Solidarity Fund 2% of global GDP, annually, to meet this demand, or saving option Planetarium Army $ 1 trillion per year, among all countries that adhere to the new coalition. It has created an extraordinary situation that requires extraordinary resources. The cost is two billion dollars per year. Either that, or chaos within two decades. Consider that only the United States has 1,700 coastal locations. The world’s major cities are coastal and including hundreds of millions of people live. When flooded where will they go? What they eat? What they drink? Where do they lie? I repeat the same thing, this is a matter of survival and pure logic. Do you have or do not have reason Dr. Hansen?. “
* According to the WHO die from air pollution 7 million people a year prematurely. Calculating thousand dollars per month and per year for 30 years for each of these victims, this means a total loss of $ 2,520,000,000,000 for the global system. That is 2.5 billion per year, and losses are increasing, justifying the investment of 2% of global GDP.