UN and NASA agree: Civilization collapses UNLESS CHANGE THE WORLD

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In just 15 years (2029-2030) we will be just 15% of the oil we currently enjoy, measured in terms of net energy.

The most likely consequence is the collapse of industrial civilization.

Dennis Meadows says that by 2030 we will be only 50% of current oil, which is consistent with predictions based on the Hubbert curve. What they forget to mention is that this provision is merely quantitative and if we consider the energy returned on energy invested of that oil, which he also mentioned in his statement in Bucharest in October 2012, that 50% in quantitative terms stays only 14 or 15% in qualitative terms, ie, in real terms, net energy, which will provide such oil.

We can take for granted that 15% will be grabbed either by the producing countries themselves for internal consumption or for the great powers, to be made with him by force of arms or by political or economic extortion. Do not forget that the first oil consumer in the world is the US Army and that the Chinese intend nothing less than double your income in a few years. The conflict and scarcity are served.

According to a report by the World Meteorological Organization made in Japan for more than 60 leading experts on global warming, climate change holds for humanity much more immediate and dangerous risks than previously thought.

So, say the authors of this report whose final version has not yet been published, in a period of between four and eight decades -whose climate change impacts such as drought in northern Mexico or strong hurricanes last year, and have become reality could cause global problems such as hunger, disease, drought, floods and wars over access to resources.

“Clearly, we are not prepared for the events we are seeing,” says Chris Field, the lead author of the Carnegie Institute of Science in California, quoted by the Associated Press.

Global risks to civilization

Social inequality: With a relatively new approach scientists reveal that there is a relationship between increased temperature and widespread poverty. Thus, they argue, economic growth and poverty reduction will slow and the world total revenues could decline.

Increased violence: lack of natural resources such as drinking water will be a destabilizing factor in the coming decades and, although not lead to open warfare, exacerbate existing conflicts.

Increased disease: The were still, food shortages, poverty and other potential problems due to rising temperatures and climate change could accelerate the development and spread of chronic diseases and infections, which, along with other factors, give an apocalyptic tinge to modern civilization.

Hunger: 2050 world prices would rise between 3% and 84% due to changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, which added significantly to the potential impoverishment of the population would cause famine in various parts of the world. It notes that, only during the next decade, world cereal production would fall by 2%, while demand will grow.

Less available water: For every extra degree Celsius, the world will have less water available. Moreover, the current water pollution could reduce, by 2080, more access to drinking water for the population. An estimated 7% of the world population does not have access to this vital resource.

However, researchers comfort, there is still time to take action and avoid catastrophe, though, -advierten- if the fragile climate balance is disturbed, these latent problems could be accentuated dramatically.

Note that these findings are consistent with the results of the report on the irreversible collapse of industrial civilization developed by the Goddard Space Flight Center of NASA. According to the authors, climate change is closely related to unsustainable development, so the global industrial civilization could collapse in the coming decades due to the irresponsible exploitation of resources and the increasingly unequal distribution of wealth.

Several studies of all types and condition have stressed in recent months increased social inequality in every country in the world or what is the same, the gap between rich and poor. Oxfam reported that half of the world’s wealth is owned by 1% of the population, while the Union of Technicians of the Ministry of Finance (Gestha) denounced last November that 20% of the richest Spanish accounts for 44% of revenues.

The consequences of this growing inequality between a rich minority and a poor majority have hardly been analyzed, and only timidly pointing towards a democratic deterioration. However, NASA has decided to fill this gap by sponsoring a thorough study to predict the effects of this defendant social phenomenon. Their results paint a doomsday scenario, “civilization could collapse in the next millennia.”

Since 1958 the US government created this agency, speculation about the end of civilization always looked to outer space. Hollywood has been one of the industries that have more monetized these ominous visions, with meteorite impacts on Earth or even alien invasions, the big stars. Despite the threats created by man have always been there, few could think that NASA would give a voice alert in this direction, that of self-destruction.

Interralacionadas two causes together

The civilizational disaster on the warning studying the Goddard Space Flight Center of NASA, advanced in the British newspaper The Guardian by the director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development, Nafeez Ahmed, relies on another leg: climate change or ” the unsustainable exploitation of resources. ” Both cases go hand in hand (economic inequality and exploitation of resources), denounced the study, which was limited to the analysis of reality, avoiding offer solutions.

The wealth is not distributed evenly among society, but being controlled by an elite. The report focuses on interpreting the data to give the scientific basis as recurring issue warnings about the collapse of humanity. The method of analysis is multidisciplinary and is based on Handy model (dimensioning English Human and Nature Dynamics), supervised by the mathematician Safa Motesharri, the US National Science Foundation.

Among the key factors that make the current “sophisticated, complex and creative civilization like the present, in a fragile and ephemeral” they are: population, climate and energy. They are converging, say, in a process that leads to the collapse and is characterized by “economic stratification of society two parties, elites (wealthy) and masses (poor)”. In addition, the paper also plays “the unsustainable exploitation of energy resources due to stress” is underlined. That is, the gap between rich and poor is based on over-consumption: “Wealth is not distributed evenly among society, but being controlled by an elite”.

Modify the situation is still possible

The appeal argument that technological advances offer a lifeline to alleviate energy shortages and inadequate resources of a planet in constant population growth (nuclear, GMO foods, etc.) is also questioned by this study. “Increased efficiency is linked to increased resource extraction and consumption of these per capita, so again compensated without solving the problem,” they write.

Technological advances are linked to increased resource extraction and consumption of these, so do not solve the problem. Through a series of algorithms, the team of researchers led by scientists Motesharri concludes that, without changing the current political model “is difficult to avoid the collapse of civilization”, and point two possible future scenarios in which the world population will be reduced drastically. The first because of the famine, and the second due to lack of access to basic resources. None of them is due to natural causes, which are avoidable by assuming certain changes that are still in our hand.

The logic would lead us to believe that the elites can not exist without the working masses, so that would be most interested in avoiding its starvation or lack of access to resources. A question to which the authors also have explanation: “The monopoly held would protect them from most detrimental effects of this collapse, at least during the early stages, so continue business as usual.”

A Perfect Storm

These protection mechanisms explain why elites stayed away from other historic collapses, like Rome or that of the Maya, until it was too late, researchers compared. “While some sectors of society sounded the alarm, calling for structural changes, the elites and their supporters opposed” recall a warning about the historical consequences of ignoring their predictions and recommendations.

For these researchers both scenarios are entirely avoidable if appropriate policies are followed, as would be “a distribution of resources more equitably” and “reduced resource consumption to sustainable levels.” Despite his apocalyptic warnings, remember the matching results of another series of studies, both private and public.

Among them, the Resource Stress KPMG or Food, energy, water and the climate: a perfect storm of Global events? developed by the scientific committee of the British Government. They all agree that the convergence of food, energy and water crises could create a “perfect storm”. However, he still has time to avoid it, as it insists on studying the Goddard Space Flight Center of NASA.

In 1992, governments around the world adopted the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and promised to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference [human-induced] with the climate system” to reduce the rate of emission of gases that cause greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. Although the treaty entered into force in 1994, the rate of gas emissions rose.

In 1992, the global combustion of coal, oil and gas, the production of cement, 22,600 million tons of CO2 were released into the air. In 2012, emissions amounted to 34.500 million tons. Instead of control, humanity accelerated human-induced change.

Uncertainty, risk, crisis, global dangers, chaos … These are some of the most repeated concepts in the latest report of the UN intergovernmental panel (consisting of 60 scientists and representatives from one hundred countries) discussed these days in Japan. The document was prepared by the agency on climate change UN, but his perspective is not limited to describing the current environmental impact, as in the past, but focuses its focus on analysis of threats to civilization. Their conclusions are not very hopeful and come to reinforce, through a chilling mimesis, the same warnings thrown in a recent study funded by NASA.

Natural catastrophes last year, together with the effects of extreme weather, with droughts, heat waves, floods and cyclones have left behind serious supply problems, hyperinflation and certain attempts at revolt. The new approach to the UN no longer focuses on the melting of glaciers and the danger to the polar bears habitat disturbance. This time the serious difficulties faced civilization in the not too distant, between four and eight decades are targeted period. The challenge now is to “survival of the human species”.

A turning point in the readings on climate, according Michel Jarraud, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, “is the result of human action.” Therefore, as noted in the conclusions, in our hands it is to reverse this trend, or at least reduce the devastating effect of these threats. The report has not yet been published, it still needs the approval of the representatives of all countries of the UN, it proposed the publication of a summary document, about 29 pages, intended for policy makers.

The risks and threats to civilization

There is still room for action, they say. Otherwise, poverty, migration or famine, resulting from these natural disasters, would become a constant source of conflict. The decline in resources would encourage war over access to essential goods, warns the draft report, “pushing States to take on new challenges and determining, increasingly, national security policies.”

The decrease in resources will push states to take on new challenges and determine, increasingly, security policies nacionalComo backdrop, the aggravation of extreme weather events and points to a lower survival of animal and plant species, the decline agricultural yields, increasing associated with pollution and displacement of large populations diseases. “A destabilization of the current balances” that would jeopardize the continuity of civilization, according to experts who have relied on hundreds of previous studies subject to the opinion of the scientific community.

“It is very clear, we are not prepared to take such situations,” he acknowledged after one of the meetings, the report’s lead author, Chris Field, told The Associated Press. Risks that could fit into five main sections:

Violence and clashes between countries over access resources

For the first time, the expert panel emphasized the association between global warming and war. In the first instance, they qualify, will not cause open warfare between countries, but will become a destabilizing factor that will increase the reasons for confrontation. Transboundary impacts (reduction of the permafrost zones of the planet, of the shared water sources or food resources) “have the potential to increase the rivalry between states.”

A good example is the weather phenomenon El Niño, can alter the availability of basic foods in many parts of the world, causing supply problems, hyperinflation and, ultimately, social unrest, as recently analyzed in value added. And, “the origin of the aborted Arab Spring is to be found there,” clarified the author.

Increased food prices and ‘hot spots’ of hunger

The prices of food and agricultural raw materials will increase by between 3 and 84% by 2050. As you go more expensive food, will emerge parallel “hot spots” of hunger in the cities. In fact, the history of the financial crisis was the food crisis.

For each degree Celsius increase global warming, water resources decrease by 20% For its part, the Oxfam organization, present in these meetings held in the Japanese city of Yokohama, warned that climate change could harm the fight against the hunger in the world. Only during the next decade, world cereal production would fall by 2%, while demand would increase by 14% by 2050.

Large areas without access to water resources

According to yet final version of the document, for each additional degree Celsius (heating), water resources decrease by around 20%. Or what is the same, 7% of the world population does not have access to this vital resource. Simultaneously, the risk of flooding, particularly in Europe and Asia, would increase significantly due to the emission of greenhouse gases in line with the thesis of James Lovelock, author of the Gaia hypothesis endorsed. The growing pollution of water would become a source of transmission of infections.

Economic inequality and widespread poverty

The poor will get poorer, the middle class lost purchasing power and the rich will be richer. Some economic inequalities that form the basis of a possible collapse of civilization, as predicted Nasa study said.

Rise of chronic diseases and infections

Poor diet, heat waves and pollution aggravate the health problems of the population. However, the report notes that the effects of environmental degradation on human health is one of the least serious is compared with the rest.

 

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